When I look at all the quarterbacks that have been drafted recently, I've noticed one consistant thing. Something that I can't believe isn't more of a concern for scouts and GM's through this process. What quarterback can you think of that has had success when his college system doesn't prepare him for the NFL's less wide open systems?
I know everybody is saying that the NFL has evolved into a passing league. But it hasn't evolved into the gimmick laden, spread out, read option, bubble screen fests that these modern offenses have become in the college ranks.
Unfortunately I don't have to dig too deep to give you an example. Our old friend Brandon Weeden fits this mold perfectly. His time in Oklahoma State featured him in an offense which kept Weeden in shotgun, with lots of wide receivers. I noticed that during his time with the Browns he never fully looked comfortable with fundamental footwork, simple play action and screen passes. And why you might ask, well he never had to do it before and pro coaches aren't into teaching fundamentals to a guy who was a 1st round draft pick.
Don't believe me... Well I recall Weeden getting outdueled by Kirk Cousins. What do you know, a guy from a pro style offense in Michigan St, more ready for the pros in his very first start than the bumbling Weeden was after nearly an entire season. Cousins was a 4th round pick in the same draft Weeden was taken in. Yet still he's buried behind Robert Griffin III, another example of a guy who has been a monumental disappointment in the NFL, because his style only ended up getting himself injured. Without his legs he has failed to adapt to the NFL game, and is horrible in situations where he really has to read a defense.
Honestly, I believe it is because the criteria for scouting pro quarterbacks is horribly broken. And the style of offense a QB played in college isn't the only red flag I saw with Weeden. I have categorized the three concerns I had with Weeden coming in...
- System - Weeden played in a spread offense at Oklahoma St. He has yet to show any aptitude to read a standard pro defense. And is a fundamental nightmare at the QB position. Not comfortable with play action, typical 3-5-7 step drop.
- Support - Weeden played with the top WR in the NCAA in 2011 in Justin Blackmon. It seems to me that college QBs can afford to get lazy with their reads and timing whenever they have a guy wide open on almost every single play. That pumps up a QBs numbers, and the easiest way to getting noticed is big numbers.
- Post Season Hype - Weeden's draft hype was severely impacted by his Pro Day at Oklahoma St. Not to mention that many were there to see Blackmon anyway. Blackmon and Weeden put on a show for them. Very few scouts had Weeden rated as a 1st round prospect before that day.
To me this trio of simple concerns has been ignored again and again, and consistently now we have found bust after bust. Meanwhile the Russell Wilsons of the world fall way down the draft. Why not? He didn't put up huge numbers in Wisconsin's pro style offense. And I think we all know what he has that Weeden doesn't.
So here is the top four QB's in this coming draft plugged into my Weeden bust formula. How does your favorite stack up.
Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
- System - Louisville runs a nice system that balances run and pass. It also features a good bit of traditional play action passes. Teddy shouldn't have footwork or issues handling snaps from under center.
- Support - Louisville did feature a couple nice receiving options in Davante Parker and Damian Copeland, but neither of these guys are considered elite guys that would make a bad QB look good.
- Post Season Hype - Most of Teddy's detractors began to arrive at the combine. His hands measured small, and some scouts worried about his slight frame (6'2" 214lbs). His stock then fell further when many said he looked poor throwing at his Pro Day.
In the end he doesn't fit the mold that I described above. After watching game film I believe that Teddy could certainly be the best of this year's batch. Of the four QBs I will profile Teddy is my #1. I just don't know if I would take him with my #4.
Blake Bortles - UCF
- System - Of the four guys I am highlighting Bortles might be the worst offender in this category. UCF runs a, up tempo, spread out offense. Along with typical 4 receiver sets there is always the threat of read option. In my film review Bortles seemed to really benfit from wide open quick hitters and screens to make his yards.
- Support - UCF seemed to be more of a product of a well executed system than superstar players. Bortles didn't really seem to be brought along by talent around him
- Post Season Hype - Unfortunately this is the other area that Bortles leads the other players. Bortles stock has risen rapidly since season's end, culminating with his Pro Day effort which was cheered by many scouts and media.
Being an offender of two of my big three things means that in my eyes at this point Blake Bortles looks to me to be an overblown project QB. Many rumors have him going #1 overall to the Texans. Far too high a price to pay for a guy who will have to learn simple footwork fundamentals just to be able to exist in a pro offense. I wouldn't take him higher than the 2nd round.
Johnny Manziel - Texas A&M
- System - I'm not sure what you called the Texas A&M offense under Manziel. I think the word "Sandlot" comes to mind when I think about Johnny Football's game. Once again a guy who was a read option QB, and a major part of the running game. Manziel didn't work under center extended many of his pass plays beyond how they were drew up.
- Support - Manziel threw up many "prayers" in his two years starting at A&M. It doesn't hurt when you have a 6'5" WR phenom in Mike Evans. Evans is slated to be a high first round pick in this year's draft.
- Post Season Hype - This is a special situation because Manziel came out of the season with bizarre Tim Tebow style hype. He won several big games, made some remarkable plays, and played hard on the field. He also partied hard off the field, and came with a bit of a stigma. The hype on Manziel seemed to lose a bit of steam. Then came his pro day. Which was attended my former president George H.W. Bush. I think that speaks for itself.
People love this kid, and I will admit if I was his college coach there were some plays that he did make that I would pat him on the back for. But I will also admit that some of his biggest moments were nothing but pure luck. Manziel is not careful with himself or a football. I admire his never give up attitude, but throwing up prayers down the middle of the field is a great way to have a short NFL career. He's a third rounder in my eyes, which unfortunately means that if I were the GM we wouldn't get the benefit of the jersey sales. Sorry Manziel fans, just not with you on this one.
Derek Carr - Fresno St.
- System - Derek Carr's film unfortunately looks eerily similar to Weeden's. All shotgun all of the time. Carr appears to be the king of the bubble screen.
- Support - Carr was also benefited from Davante Adams, who with Fresno State's schedule was likely a nightmare matchup for defenders. Adams is currently a 2nd round prospect in the upcoming draft.
- Post Season Hype - Carr's Combine and Pro Day all sort of flew under the radar. His draft status has stayed fairly steady at the tail end of the tier one prospects.
Carr looks like Brandon Weeden 2.0 to me and that's all I'm going to say about that. I would like to see him taken in the 3rd or 4th round, so he can progress as a project. However I also see him going somewhere that is going to have a need to start him early.
So there it is, if the Browns HAVE to take a QB with your 4th pick, I will only be happy with Teddy Bridgewater. But I see a lot of question marks. And why pick a question mark when there will be a few exclamation points available?
